Convexity and Everything
A brain dump / memorialization of some recent thoughts.
This post is just an egoic attempt to publically claim myself as progenitor of a few thoughts / metaphysical / philosophical supspicions on convexity and its relation to western markets, social unrest, and psychology. Probably not interesting to most of my readers, but let me know if you / somebody else beat me to any of these:
The Keynesian Model is essentially a scarcity complex: a claim that economic energy is driven by need rather than abundance and creativity. Adoption of this model has psychic + sociocultural implications.
Market beta (volatility), like all beta, cannot be suppressed, only transmuted. QE and other MP interventions amplify and postpone beta in the market and redirect spill into social, political and other domains.
Much like our neoliberal Keynesian system flees beta via QE, so does our Zoomer population via TikTok and Safe Spaces. These are spiritually congruent phenomena. In the US, at least, we are “coddling” both an economy and an entire generation.
Accordingly, “Creative Destruction” is the lindy economic term for antifragility. Similarly, CBT-style exposure produces psychological antifragility.
The hero myth, as conceptualized by J. Peterson, is a metaphorical description of antifragility. Hero willfully exposes himself to chaos / underworld (beta), sublimates his challenge into a golden boon (asymmetric upside).
To establish oneself as an antifragile entity, one might look for ways to frame all stressors as potential sources of asymmetric upside / convexity. This reframing might best be conceptualized as optimism and or capital-f Faith.
Wisdom and well being is psychological antifragility. By deepening our metaperception and poking holes in our ontological map, we willfully expose ourselves to chaos. This process is rewarding. In becoming connoisseurs of suffering, we both maximize our exposure to stress and benefit from it.
Psychological antifragility fast pass: In response to every stressor, ask “how might this be the best thing to ever happen to me? What if this were a gift? What if I’m wrong?”